Wednesday, November 5, 2008

The Plot Thickens

5 November 2008

Well, it is now official. On January 20, 2009, Barack Obama will be inaugurated as the forty-fourth president of the United States. The self-described "skinny black kid with a funny name" has risen to the highest office in the country after one of the longest presidential campaigns in U.S. history (according to CNN.com, lasting 21 excruciating months). Everyone was excited when the news was announced over the television at Rudy's house around 4.00 AM (GMT). There was hugging, shouts of excitement, frantic phone calls and text messages to friends and family, and probably a few tears of joy in certain cases. The issue of the contest had been, more or less, settled when it was announced that Obama was projected to capture Ohio--with the Republican failure to win either the Buckeye State or its neighbor Pennsylvania, it was mathemtically impossible for McCain to gain a majority of the electoral votes--but that didn't diminish our enthusiasm. When a whole cluster of us, including Zack, Emma, Shannyn, Dwight, Ben, Lauren Martin, Jen, Annie, Sara Verhalen, and yours truly, were taking the bus back to campus, many of us began to sing "The Star-Spangled Banner," Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA," and "God Bless America." It was great. Truly, it was a moment when we were able to share in our shared background and identity as Americans.

Now I'm not going to trouble you with a blow-by-blow account of the night's events--besides the aforesaid victory of Obama in the presidential race and the significant gains the Democrats made in the Senate and the House, not too much happened. Mrs. Rudalevige's cooking was excellent as usual, and everyone derived no small measure of pleasure from CNN's trippy computer graphics and special effects (long-distance conversations by hologram, anyone?). But I'd like to share three or four thoughts that occurred to me at time or that have since started to rattle 'round my brain.

1. The Historical Significance Of This Moment

Monday night, there was a dinner at the Sainsbury Centre for the Visual Arts to celebrate the twentieth anniversay of the relationship between Dickinson and UEA; at the start, Chris Bigsby declared that this year's election was possibly the most important one "since the foundation of the Republic" (a word choice that Shannyn and I both found unusual at the time). Now I would have to disagree with his assessment of the gravity of last night's events--I'd have to say that the elections of 1800, 1860, 1896, and 1932 have a slight lead--but there's no denying that last night was a moment of great significance in our country's history. Zack, Emma, and I were talking about it a while as we were walking to Rudy's from the bus stop on Unthank Road, and it occurred to me that for those African-Americans who can remember the old strictures of "Jim Crow," this must have had the same impact as the moon-landings had on those who remembered life before the Wright Brothers. The interval between Brown v. Board of Education (1954) and the presidential election of 2008 is less than sixty years. We have traveled so far on the road toward racial equality and tolerance. It's astonishing when you think about it. The Obama presidency could turn out to be an unmitigated failure or a great mediocrity (which, my respects to his supporters, remain distinct possibilities), but historians will still remember last night for that reason.

2. The Death of the Republican Party?

Although last night's victory for Obama and the Democratic Party was far from the most catastrophic defeat which the Republican Party has ever endured, it is shocking considering the heights it enjoyed as late as four years ago when they were in control of the White House and Capitol. Since 2004, Republicans have suffered substantial losses in multiple voting blocs; the most prominent is probably the Hispanic vote, which till now had historically been one of the more unpredictable segments of the electorate. Cubans voted Republican. Mexicans and Puerto Ricans voted Democratic. But as CNN reported last night at one point, an increasing proportion of Cuban-Americans are registering as Independents or saying that they might consider voting Democratic; the remainder of America's Hispanic population has been united overwhelmingly in opposition to the Grand Old Party largely in response to its poor handling of the immigration issue in recent years.

Its losses among Hispanic and other votes are indicative of a larger problem with the Republican Party. For the most part devoid of charisma or persuasive ideas besides the old slogans of its pro-life, anti-gay rights, and pro-business constituencies, the Party of Lincoln and Reagan is now faced with the grim reality that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 15-20 percentage points in terms of voter registration; and because of increasing distaste for the Party's socially and fiscally conservative message, it can no longer count on the rough third of the electorate who are registered as Independents and who, almost as a rule, have tended to favor Republicans since the heady days of Ronald Reagan. Democrats now control the White House, Senate, House, the majority of state governorships, and state houses. And all I can wonder in response to these realities is: might we be seeing the death of the Republican Party?

3. How Will Obama Govern?

I think this is probably the most pressing question that faces our country. We have elected a politician who, based on his reasonably limited resume as a community activist, state senator, and U.S. senator, has shown himself to be a conventional "liberal" in policy and ideological terms. Or perhaps "socialist" would be a more accurate term? Unlike many of the people with whom I grew up or to whom I'm related, I'm not going to call his fitness into office based simply on the fact that he supports increased governmental regulation of the economy, higher taxes for the wealthier members of society, or the expansion of government mandates to address endemic problems like health care, poverty, and education. Honestly, there are certain policies that Obama endorses that I really don't like (e.g., the redistribution of income or the extension of welfare programs). I also happen to think that in regards to issues like health care or the regulation of corporate practices, we could benefit from a reasonable dose of socialism.

Of course, the rub lies in the fact that despite Obama's seeming affinity for socialistic policies and principles, he has promised to be a unifying figure, a president for both "Red" and "Blue" states:

As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, we are not enemies but friends. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too.

This prompts one to wonder how far will Obama follow his ideological predilections, especially since the Democrats have almost overwhelming majorities in both the House and the Senate. If the Wall Street Journal and other analysts are to believed, his legislative program is certainly ambitious and contains a number of policies which should delight the American Left, such as ending the war in Iraq, introducing a universal or nearly universal health care program, reducing our national reliance on oil from the Middle East, and reforming Social Security and Medicare. There's no question that many of these proposals are quite popular in theory; however, it still has yet to be determined whether last night's electoral victory for the Democrats signifies a basic shift in the nation's political landscape or merely a repudiation of the policies of the Bush Administration. If it's the latter, Obama will have to tread carefully, because if it is true, then America remains a fundamentally conservative country, a country that mistrusts the power of government to address the problems in our society and that can as soon return to the Republicans as it abandoned them.

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In any event, the next four years should prove to be exciting with potentially profound implications for the future direction of the United States of America. We can try to anticipate what will happen, but we can't be anymore certain about things than we can be the weather a week from today. Stay tuned, though. Things just might be getting good.

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Addendum (posted 10 November 2008)

I'll post more about my recent trip to Ireland later, but I was catching-up on recent events just now, and I stumbled on two recent columns from the pen of George Will; they're not certainly his best, but they have a great deal to say about the future of the Republican Party and how an Obama administration will govern the country. Enjoy!